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Beyond Demand Estimation: Consumer Surplus Evaluation via Cumulative Propensity Weights

Bian, Zeyu, Biggs, Max, Gao, Ruijiang, Qi, Zhengling

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper develops a practical framework for using observational data to audit the consumer surplus effects of AI-driven decisions, specifically in targeted pricing and algorithmic lending. Traditional approaches first estimate demand functions and then integrate to compute consumer surplus, but these methods can be challenging to implement in practice due to model misspecification in parametric demand forms and the large data requirements and slow convergence of flexible nonparametric or machine learning approaches. Instead, we exploit the randomness inherent in modern algorithmic pricing, arising from the need to balance exploration and exploitation, and introduce an estimator that avoids explicit estimation and numerical integration of the demand function. Each observed purchase outcome at a randomized price is an unbiased estimate of demand and by carefully reweighting purchase outcomes using novel cumulative propensity weights (CPW), we are able to reconstruct the integral. Building on this idea, we introduce a doubly robust variant named the augmented cumulative propensity weighting (ACPW) estimator that only requires one of either the demand model or the historical pricing policy distribution to be correctly specified. Furthermore, this approach facilitates the use of flexible machine learning methods for estimating consumer surplus, since it achieves fast convergence rates by incorporating an estimate of demand, even when the machine learning estimate has slower convergence rates. Neither of these estimators is a standard application of off-policy evaluation techniques as the target estimand, consumer surplus, is unobserved. To address fairness, we extend this framework to an inequality-aware surplus measure, allowing regulators and firms to quantify the profit-equity trade-off. Finally, we validate our methods through comprehensive numerical studies.


BACON: A fully explainable AI model with graded logic for decision making problems

Bai, Haishi, Dujmovic, Jozo, Wang, Jianwu

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As machine learning models and autonomous agents are increasingly deployed in high-stakes, real-world domains such as healthcare, security, finance, and robotics, the need for transparent and trustworthy explanations has become critical. To ensure end-to-end transparency of AI decisions, we need models that are not only accurate but also fully explainable and human-tunable. We introduce BACON, a novel framework for automatically training explainable AI models for decision making problems using graded logic. BACON achieves high predictive accuracy while offering full structural transparency and precise, logic-based symbolic explanations, enabling effective human-AI collaboration and expert-guided refinement. We evaluate BACON with a diverse set of scenarios: classic Boolean approximation, Iris flower classification, house purchasing decisions and breast cancer diagnosis. In each case, BACON provides high-performance models while producing compact, human-verifiable decision logic. These results demonstrate BACON's potential as a practical and principled approach for delivering crisp, trustworthy explainable AI.


Qrlew: Rewriting SQL into Differentially Private SQL

Grislain, Nicolas, Roussel, Paul, Agathe, Victoria de Sainte

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper introduces Qrlew, an open source library that can parse SQL queries into Relations -- an intermediate representation -- that keeps track of rich data types, value ranges, and row ownership; so that they can easily be rewritten into differentially-private equivalent and turned back into SQL queries for execution in a variety of standard data stores. With Qrlew, a data practitioner can express their data queries in standard SQL; the data owner can run the rewritten query without any technical integration and with strong privacy guarantees on the output; and the query rewriting can be operated by a privacy-expert who must be trusted by the owner, but may belong to a separate organization.


Contextual Dynamic Pricing with Strategic Buyers

Liu, Pangpang, Yang, Zhuoran, Wang, Zhaoran, Sun, Will Wei

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Personalized pricing, which involves tailoring prices based on individual characteristics, is commonly used by firms to implement a consumer-specific pricing policy. In this process, buyers can also strategically manipulate their feature data to obtain a lower price, incurring certain manipulation costs. Such strategic behavior can hinder firms from maximizing their profits. In this paper, we study the contextual dynamic pricing problem with strategic buyers. The seller does not observe the buyer's true feature, but a manipulated feature according to buyers' strategic behavior. In addition, the seller does not observe the buyers' valuation of the product, but only a binary response indicating whether a sale happens or not. Recognizing these challenges, we propose a strategic dynamic pricing policy that incorporates the buyers' strategic behavior into the online learning to maximize the seller's cumulative revenue. We first prove that existing non-strategic pricing policies that neglect the buyers' strategic behavior result in a linear $\Omega(T)$ regret with $T$ the total time horizon, indicating that these policies are not better than a random pricing policy. We then establish that our proposed policy achieves a sublinear regret upper bound of $O(\sqrt{T})$. Importantly, our policy is not a mere amalgamation of existing dynamic pricing policies and strategic behavior handling algorithms. Our policy can also accommodate the scenario when the marginal cost of manipulation is unknown in advance. To account for it, we simultaneously estimate the valuation parameter and the cost parameter in the online pricing policy, which is shown to also achieve an $O(\sqrt{T})$ regret bound. Extensive experiments support our theoretical developments and demonstrate the superior performance of our policy compared to other pricing policies that are unaware of the strategic behaviors.


STEEL: Singularity-aware Reinforcement Learning

Chen, Xiaohong, Qi, Zhengling, Wan, Runzhe

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Batch reinforcement learning (RL) aims at leveraging pre-collected data to find an optimal policy that maximizes the expected total rewards in a dynamic environment. Nearly all existing algorithms rely on the absolutely continuous assumption on the distribution induced by target policies with respect to the data distribution, so that the batch data can be used to calibrate target policies via the change of measure. However, the absolute continuity assumption could be violated in practice (e.g., no-overlap support), especially when the state-action space is large or continuous. In this paper, we propose a new batch RL algorithm without requiring absolute continuity in the setting of an infinite-horizon Markov decision process with continuous states and actions. We call our algorithm STEEL: SingulariTy-awarE rEinforcement Learning. Our algorithm is motivated by a new error analysis on off-policy evaluation, where we use maximum mean discrepancy, together with distributionally robust optimization, to characterize the error of off-policy evaluation caused by the possible singularity and to enable model extrapolation. By leveraging the idea of pessimism and under some mild conditions, we derive a finite-sample regret guarantee for our proposed algorithm without imposing absolute continuity. Compared with existing algorithms, by requiring only minimal data-coverage assumption, STEEL significantly improves the applicability and robustness of batch RL. Extensive simulation studies and one real experiment on personalized pricing demonstrate the superior performance of our method in dealing with possible singularity in batch RL.


ReactGenie: An Object-Oriented State Abstraction for Complex Multimodal Interactions Using Large Language Models

Jackie, null, Yang, null, Li, Karina, Rosli, Daniel Wan, Zhang, Shuning, Zhang, Yuhan, Lam, Monica S., Landay, James A.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multimodal interactions have been shown to be more flexible, efficient, and adaptable for diverse users and tasks than traditional graphical interfaces. However, existing multimodal development frameworks either do not handle the complexity and compositionality of multimodal commands well or require developers to write a substantial amount of code to support these multimodal interactions. In this paper, we present ReactGenie, a programming framework that uses a shared object-oriented state abstraction to support building complex multimodal mobile applications. Having different modalities share the same state abstraction allows developers using ReactGenie to seamlessly integrate and compose these modalities to deliver multimodal interaction. ReactGenie is a natural extension to the existing workflow of building a graphical app, like the workflow with React-Redux. Developers only have to add a few annotations and examples to indicate how natural language is mapped to the user-accessible functions in the program. ReactGenie automatically handles the complex problem of understanding natural language by generating a parser that leverages large language models. We evaluated the ReactGenie framework by using it to build three demo apps. We evaluated the accuracy of the language parser using elicited commands from crowd workers and evaluated the usability of the generated multimodal app with 16 participants. Our results show that ReactGenie can be used to build versatile multimodal applications with highly accurate language parsers, and the multimodal app can lower users' cognitive load and task completion time.


Distribution-free Contextual Dynamic Pricing

Luo, Yiyun, Sun, Will Wei, Liu, and Yufeng

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Contextual dynamic pricing aims to set personalized prices based on sequential interactions with customers. At each time period, a customer who is interested in purchasing a product comes to the platform. The customer's valuation for the product is a linear function of contexts, including product and customer features, plus some random market noise. The seller does not observe the customer's true valuation, but instead needs to learn the valuation by leveraging contextual information and historical binary purchase feedbacks. Existing models typically assume full or partial knowledge of the random noise distribution. In this paper, we consider contextual dynamic pricing with unknown random noise in the valuation model. Our distribution-free pricing policy learns both the contextual function and the market noise simultaneously. A key ingredient of our method is a novel perturbed linear bandit framework, where a modified linear upper confidence bound algorithm is proposed to balance the exploration of market noise and the exploitation of the current knowledge for better pricing. We establish the regret upper bound and a matching lower bound of our policy in the perturbed linear bandit framework and prove a sub-linear regret bound in the considered pricing problem. Finally, we demonstrate the superior performance of our policy on simulations and a real-life auto-loan dataset.


Dirichlet policies for reinforced factor portfolios

André, Eric, Coqueret, Guillaume

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This article aims to combine factor investing and reinforcement learning (RL). The agent learns through sequential random allocations which rely on firms' characteristics. Using Dirichlet distributions as the driving policy, we derive closed forms for the policy gradients and analytical properties of the performance measure. This enables the implementation of REINFORCE methods, which we perform on a large dataset of US equities. Across a large range of implementation choices, our result indicates that RL-based portfolios are very close to the equally-weighted (1/N) allocation. This implies that the agent learns to be agnostic with regard to factors. This is partly consistent with cross-sectional regressions showing a strong time variation in the relationship between returns and firm characteristics.


Hedging the Drift: Learning to Optimize under Non-Stationarity

Cheung, Wang Chi, Simchi-Levi, David, Zhu, Ruihao

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce general data-driven decision-making algorithms that achieve state-of-the-art \emph{dynamic regret} bounds for non-stationary bandit settings. It captures applications such as advertisement allocation and dynamic pricing in changing environments. We show how the difficulty posed by the (unknown \emph{a priori} and possibly adversarial) non-stationarity can be overcome by an unconventional marriage between stochastic and adversarial bandit learning algorithms. Our main contribution is a general algorithmic recipe that first converts the rate-optimal Upper-Confidence-Bound (UCB) algorithm for stationary bandit settings into a tuned Sliding Window-UCB algorithm with optimal dynamic regret for the corresponding non-stationary counterpart. Boosted by the novel bandit-over-bandit framework with automatic adaptation to the unknown changing environment, it even permits us to enjoy, in a (surprisingly) parameter-free manner, this optimal dynamic regret if the amount of non-stationarity is moderate to large or an improved (compared to existing literature) dynamic regret otherwise. In addition to the classical exploration-exploitation trade-off, our algorithms leverage the power of the "forgetting principle" in their online learning processes, which is vital in changing environments. We further conduct extensive numerical experiments on both synthetic data and the CPRM-12-001: On-Line Auto Lending dataset provided by the Center for Pricing and Revenue Management at Columbia University to show that our proposed algorithms achieve superior dynamic regret performances.


What They Don't Teach You in Machine Learning Courses

#artificialintelligence

Data science is an integral part of building an efficient ride-hailing platform. At Taxify, it took us just one year to build a strong and agile data science function which works on state-of-the-art solutions and deals with optimising millions of rides happening in real time. While interviewing hundreds of candidates, we've realised that even those with a strong technical background were very often lacking some essential skills. In this article, we're talking about things that they don't teach you in Machine Learning courses. Tech industry has (more or less) learned how to make engineers and business work together.